Abstract: Objective The aim of the study was to investigate predictive factors of esophageal variceal rebleeding (EVRB) within 12 months after initial endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) treatment in patients with cirrhosis. Methods A total of 120 cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) treated with EVL treatment for the first time were retrospectively analyzed, who were admitted to our hospital between January 2009 and January 2012. The 120 patients were followed up for 12 months. Among these patients, 73 (60.83%) patients without rebleeding and 47 (39.17%) patients with recurrent hemorrhage within 12 months were enrolled as the non-rebleeding group and rebleeding group, respectively. Differences between 2 groups were estimated using independent samples t-test and non-parametric test for continuous variables, and χ² test for categorical variables, respectively. COX regression was used to identify independent risk factors and establish a COX model. Results The average age was 51.7 and 55.5 years old in non-rebleeding and rebleeding group, respectively. Mean hemoglobin (HGB) and mean albumin (Alb) level were 82.2 g/L and 30.9 g/L in non-rebleeding group, and 74.0 g/L and 29.0g/L in rebleeding group, respectively. Parameters including age, HGB, Alb, Child-Pugh (CTP) classification, ascites, non-neoplastic splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT), requirement of blood transfusion and the width of portal vein were significant different between 2 groups (P<0.05). COX regression revealed that age and CTP classification were independent predictors for variceal rebleeding within 12 months of initial treatment. Besides, a COX regression equation was established: h(t, X)=h0(t)exp(0.053X₁+0.888X6) (X₁=age, X₂=CTP classification), which was statistically significant (χ²=21.417, P<0.001). Conclusion The study indicates that recurrent hemorrhage within 12 months after initial EVB and EVL treatment in cirrhotic patients is significantly associated with age, HGB, Alb, CTP classification, ascites, SVT, requirements of blood transfusion and the width of portal vein. Furthermore, age and CTP classification are the independent predictors of EVRB.

Key words: Liver cirrhosis;Esophageal variceal bleeding;Endoscopic variceal ligation;Rebleeding